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Ettei vain joku näkisi valoa UK:ssa?

kesäkuu 11, 2012

The Telegraph on julkaissut kokonaisuudessaan erään Adam Posen -nimisen tyypin pitämän puheen. Ohessa ”lyhyt” alkuperäiskielinen lainaus:

I believe that further asset purchases by central banks can improve the economic situation we are now in. I believe that this is particularly true because a major source of our difficulties is an excessive perception of and aversion to risk on the part of investors, even though some rise in that perception and aversion were justified after the boom years. That rise which we see, and the resultant cash hoarding by businesses and portfolio investors, are excessive because some credit problems really are due to illiquidity and to financial market dysfunction rather than to insolvency and indebtedness. We are at risk of the reluctance to invest becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, as opposed to investment leading us into recovery as in normal situations. Additional expansionary monetary policy should be effective in breaking this cycle, and must be pursued to meet central banks’ mandated goals.

I propose that further asset purchases by central banks should take the form of private sector securities for the time being. This will allow more direct targeting of financial sector dysfunctions, and greater impact on liquidity preferring investors’ portfolios, thereby leading to greater impacts on confidence and on the real economy than a similar unit of QE on government bonds. Obviously, not all private sector assets should be eligible for central bank purchases. Central banks should choose those assets which provide the best combination of market depth when functional, importance to the economy, and financial dislocation at present. Securitized bundles of bank loans are in many ways the best kind of private asset to purchase, be they for SME lending in the UK or for mortgages in the US. Where securitized markets of sufficient depth for such assets do not yet exist, as in the UK for SME loans, the central bank should engage in offers to purchase which help make the market for such assets.

I do not subscribe to the standard reasons given for central banks not to purchase private sector assets as part of monetary policy. Worries about credit risk on central bank balance sheets are really concerns for central bank independence from politicians. These concerns, however, are misplaced, for the source of central bank independence is public support from elected officials that the central bank is pursuing desirable social goals.

If such support exists, ongoing backing of the central bank balance sheet is a non-issue – if such support is absent, politicians will not require the excuse of paper losses from monetary operations to make attacks on central bank independence. Better to have finance ministries give general indemnities to their respective central banks on any losses incurred in the conduct of monetary policy, as we have here in the United Kingdom. That will also enable better monetary policy by removing self-imposed limits on what assets central banks can purchase without extending distortionary government guarantees to private asset issuers.

This program would be the way for the major central banks to make the most of doing more.

Lukekaa alkuperäinen puhe. Mikäli BoE tekee noin, niin brittien lama väistyy suhteellisen nopeasti.

Mikäli Euroalueella haluttaisiin todella lopettaa nämä ongelmat, jotka johtuvat pudonneesta NGDP:stä, minkä taas aiheuttavat CAB-erot, niin EKP tekisi kuten Posen ehdottaa BoE:n tekevän.

On puhdas poliittinen valinta ottaa mieluummin reaalitalouksien luhistuminen ja kymmenien miljoonien työttömien armeijat ja sijoittajien omaisuuden tuhoutuminen kuin rahan painaminen ja sen tunkeminen markkinoille.

Poliittinen valinta.

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